India and China’s new world order: why we can’t ‘go it alone’ without them.

I originally started talking about this back when 9/11 and Bush's elective war got me curious about U.S. foreign policy and potential backlashes. The last thing America needs is for the other major world powers (especially economic powers) to decide that America is dangerous and that they must form alliances against us. I imagined that if China (over 1.3 billion population) and India (over 1 billion population) ever put aside their differences they could use their fast growing economies to change the world's economy. India and China each have a booming middle class that makes up 1/3 of the world's customers. America desperately wants and needs a piece of that pie.

What's more, America has shipped many thousands of its jobs to India (technology) and China (manufacturing). If these two nations decided to put pressure on the U.S., they could do so very easily. What could we use as leverage against them? Military leverage is almost worthless. We can't even subdue a country the size of California. And what economic leverage could we use? Can we threaten to not let China make our products? Or India to not provide tech? That would stop us in our own tracks.

So imagine hearing this bit bit of news this week. India and China have woke up. They see their economic potential to reshape world markets. And you can bet they're not scheming to put America in charge.

So when I hear idiots in America mouth off that America can "go it alone" and the rest of the world better fall in line, I think of old political concepts like “balance of power.” They're not going to sit around and let the U.S. pick them off one by one.

There's more. Recent U.S. behavior has not sided well with the interests of China and India. Consider these entanglements:

Bush and Congress just sold Pakistan fighter planes. U.S. ties to Pakistan over terrorism has made India nervous enough, considering India and Pakistan are enemies and now have nuclear missiles pointed at each other. And then Bush goes and sells Pakistan jets which are useless against terrorism but very good against...India. India might be taking this personally, the act of providing their enemy with the means to kill them. (This backlash has already happened with Muslims, who resent the U.S. giving Israel the means to obliterate Palestinians.)

Bush has run this country based on massive foreign debt. A large part of our borrowed money comes from Japan. China hates Japan. And recently, Chinese protesters took to the streets raging about new Japanese textbooks that whitewash the Japanese invasion and torture of Manchuria in the 1930s. The Korean War was, in part, to keep the Chinese and Communists out of South Korea--which is a launching point for attacking Japan. We still have troops there to protect Japan. Once China has its manufacturing base up enough to sustain a war, settling the score with Japan is a very real possibility. And the U.S. is stuck in the middle.

Add to that the current hostilities with North Korea and it’s a bigger mess. Even though China has distanced itself from NK, there's no comfort that NK wouldn't take advantage of a new Sino-Japanese war to rebuild ties with China.

And ther’es also Taiwan. In 2001, Bush didn't make China happy by saying he'd consider using force to prevent China from retaking Taiwan (formerly Formosa, a part of pre-WW2 China, and a very wealthy province). If China and Japan go at it again, there’s a chance China could take the opportunity to re-take Taiwan. Where would the U.S. stand? Neutrality is not an option. And I doubt many Americans would favor China over Japan--there’s just too much history on this. (But American politicians might enjoy voiding our debt to Japan, and businesses might prefer we stick with China since they provide so much manufacturing for us.)

And how would Russia come into play? As the Soviet Union, Russia had more nukes pointed at China than the U.S. Russia and China hate each other too. If China and Japan go at it, which side (if any) would Russia take? It would effectively be Russia and Japan against China.

Now back to India. If India links its economy with China, that means they cannot remain neutral if China is threatened. So it would be India, China, and maybe North Korea against Russia, Japan, Taiwan and maybe the U.S.

...and Pakistan? Would Pakistan pass up a chance to claim the disputed boundary territory with India, and maybe even destroy India’s economy with a multi-front war?

And for the final piece: the Middle East. One of the excuses for inflating gas prices in America is that we now have greater competition for oil resources. China and India’s growing economies mean they have a fast growing need for oil, and half of the world’s supply is right where Bush is knocking down governments to enable U.S. corporations control of Middle East oil industries. If you’re China or India, it is most definitely not in your interest for your enemies’ ally to be rapidly taking control of the world’s biggest oil reserves.

This all sounds convoluted, but the point is that China and India would make up a massive economic force that the U.S. must have positive relations with. But we’re also inextricably linked to their bitter enemies, and most of our foreign policy positions and decisions have not been favorable to them. That puts the U.S. in some very fragile diplomatic positions.